Tuesday, June 9, 2009

I will be back! with lower risk premia do we say hurrah?

So I am... passed my generals for the Ph.D. Loads of academic papers read.. few retained :) I am now going to think through this "rally" that has failed to cross 1000. Views on FX where the dollar has gone down against the Euro. Commodities etc. also included.

Interestingly funds have been having a good time..quite a bit of which comes from lower risk aversion- notice how the risk premia has narrowed and closed end fund discount- another measure of risk premium is narrowed down. In fact various risk premia narrowing is the key point/theme in all the "news" below.

- For the third consecutive month both equity (+10.28%) and fixed income (+4.58%) closed-end funds (CEFs) posted plus-side returns. Both macro-groups posted eye-popping returns for the three-month period ended May 31, 2009.
- On the stock side Mixed Equity Funds (+13.81%)-catapulted by Income & Preferred Stock Funds-and World Equity Funds (+13.39%) outpaced the Domestic Equity Funds (+7.76%) macro-classification.
- For the month 99% of all CEFs were able to post plus-side returns, with 100% of bond CEFs and 99% of equity CEFs chalking up returns in the black.
- Bond investors continued to be less risk averse and yield seeking in May, pushing Loan Participation Funds (+7.74%) and Global Income Funds (+7.29%) to the head of the class.
- In May the median discount of all CEFs narrowed 73 basis points (bps) to 7.96%. The largest narrowing of discounts (454
bps) was seen in the World Income Funds macro-group.