Sunday, January 18, 2009

Long the dollar/short EUR?

I think it may be time to short the EUR against the USD again...

-I think Europe will sink into recession more than the US and the authorities there have not officially recommended a Zero interest rate policy... So any moves towards that will "surprise" the markets.

- Also, with news like Ireland, Greece etc. being more likely to default the status of Euro as a single currency may be a bit more under siege....

News Below....

The Irish IMF Rumor: Is A Payment Default Or A EMU Break-Up More Conceivable?

  • Ireland was at pains to deny rumours that the IMF is about to walk in. Investors are getting increasingly nervous about the prospect of payment default in the euro area, and this is reflected by an increase in spreads and a weakening euro. The Irish spread has now widened to 184bp, and five-year credit default swaps for Ireland yesterday shot up from 193 to 207bp. Greek CDS are now at 250bp. The notion of a payment default among euro members spooks global investors, and the euro duly fell to $1.31 (Eurointelligence)

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