Next 6 months view- still short

Recently my view on the S&P had been that it
would bounce around between 800 to 1000 with some downside drift. I still hold on to that view except I am a bit more bearish now. The other shoe consisting of the real side of the economy hasn't dropped.

More gloomy views

I expect anybody competing with Home Equity Loans lines of credit, student loans, credit cards, Installment loans to post much bigger defaults numbers since credit was so cheap over the last few year and the lenders must have lent to the same group of customers with the same reckless abandon.... 0 % financing etc.

Credit Cards: I expect more credit card firms to go bankrupt. When I scan the credit card firm numbers it seems there are "trading losses" that are quite large in magnitude... for example it seems Capital One Financial had losses on the order of 3 Billion this quarter from trading but overall made 1 Billion dollars... this is worrying...

Commercial Real Estate: Dennis Gartman, in his letter, talks about how he expects bad times to come for commercial real estate... malls etc. and I agree. With many stores closing a lot of the malls will become unprofitable and commercial real estate will suffer tremendously.

Private Equity: A lot of private equity funds will have problems raising money, or closing, or even GETTING the money they have been promised. Additionally, the portfolios they had with high leverages and high multiples on these land deals- hotels, entertainment, restaurants etc. are all rapidly becoming worthless. These are the "shadow lenders" in the economy. When the cheap credit goes away they will suffer a lot and it will take time before the extent of suffering is made public and known.

So I expect some sort of a meltdown from the real recession on the above mentioned parts of the
economy...

However, let's hope I am totally wrong....
My trading Performance:
I am toying with putting up my trading performance for this year on the web. My positions are small but I run them seriously. If anyone's interested or has a view on if I should put up my trading numbers please let me know via the comments section

cheers