Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Birmingham , Alabama bankrupt? Who else will follow?

Muni Bond Spreads were wide for a reason
The word is that Mr. Paul Maco, formerly of SEC said that "I don’t think there’s anyone who has been involved in the swaps and derivatives market to the extent that the Jefferson County (Birmingham, Alabama) sewer system was.”
Apparently these positions means possible bankruptcy for Birmingham, Alabama. This is serious and does indeed prove the point about credit crunch being only "half done." This lends credibility to the reports of municipal bonds having spreads one could drive a truck through. Basically, wall street knew that many of these municipalities were exposed to toxic credit derivatives, and the fact that due to the current recession -that no one saw coming in the boom times when the bonds were being issued, these cities/boroughs will have lower revenue in the coming years than imagined/planned.

I am just wondering which other city/respectable organization will follow and yield the next round of text book business cases ?

Lehman and the financial stocks are in trouble again :).... Goldman shorts continue to rake it in. I would stop out around 150. GS was trading at 180 when I suggested the short...

Trading Strategy: I feel that in this environment of "bad news" followed by recovery the best method is to "range trade" with low amounts and stops of 1310 on the topside for the S&P and around 1200 on the downside.
Similar trading ranges may be established for currencies/favorite stocks. My only suggestion is to trade using small amounts unless you have a very strong view....
you are likely to get whipsawed and if you are not used to it, get emotional and tense...

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