Sunday, August 10, 2008

US market M&A recovering- word on the street

Companies are voting that dollar is cheap and euro is overvalued and the financial sector is coming back to life

The Financial sector seems to be coming back to life. The word on the street is that
here has been a notable revival in announced M&A deals over the last two months. The value of announced M&A deals has been recovering notably in recent weeks.


Cross-border M&A flows have surged, with US companies the largest target across regions, while the euro area has been the largest source of inflows into the US.

Expect US to recover more quickly than Europe and the dollar is cheap right now...

Data Summary
Dollar finally stops falling (and in my opinion it is time to get long)
Oil slides and Breakeven inflation rates falling hard
Liquidity and credit spreads: Both Ted and corporate spreads widen
Corporate Issuance: Slowdown in debt issuance continues
M&A and Buybacks: Cross-Border M&A at new high

So there is still a possibility of a liquidity crisis since the Ted Spread and the Corporate Spread is still wide, either the corporations think that the interest rates are likely to fall even more or they think the risk premia is too high at the moment or they just don't have great ideas to invest in! My guess is that it is the last two reasons. Probably a lot of companies will go through cost cutting projects and eventually find good projects to invest in.... Naturally this doesn't apply to all sectors.

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