Short BRL?

One of my friends from Brazil sent me this note on the Brazilian Real... This short BRL trade may be worth doing simply as a hedge against your long stock positions...
Capital Flows out of BRL
1. the process of portfolio realignment is not over... capital is fleeing and this process is correlated with bad news there (investors taking money out to cover theirs obligations abroad or just to buy safer assets in other places)
Commodity Prices
2. Price of commodities (main Brazilian exports) is going down, which is also reflecting on balance of commerce (this effect tends to be greater than benefits to increase the volume of goods exported - given that the world is not buying so much). This means that the adjustment on the balance of commerce will be slow, and for the next year, the balance tends to be negative...Also, the balance of commerce is sensitive to Embraer exports (aviation company), which, under the current scenario, has not received many requests.

Central Bank
3. The Brazilian Central bank has signed that it will not increase interest rates (which attract foreign investors) since inflation is under control . Although the rate is high - 13.75% - this is not historically very high (we had long periods recently with the basic rate in 17-20%). In the last meeting of the monetary policy committe the rate was mantained and the head of the Central Bank indicated that changes in the near future, if any, will be downward (also, there is a lot of political pressure from politicians afraid that we go through a recession...)
My comments: The investors may still flock to the Real for the high interest rates if they don't cut too aggressively and it seems that they will survive the crisis. My view on short Real etc. is predicated upon the slowing down of growth for the short term.

Trade: I would go short the BRL preferably thorough some sort of a barrier option which will be a cheap punt. One can also go short via regular options but that will be quite expensive with the volatility. Now is the time to go on Oanda online and bet on barriers